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Generalized Gamma Frailty and Normal Random Effects Model for Repeated Time-to-Event Data

2025· preprint· en· W4413089642 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Kai Liu, Yan Wang, Xiaojun Zhu, N. Balakrishnan

Bibliographic record

VenuePreprints.org · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicHealth Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersYoung Scientists FundGovernment of Jiangsu ProvinceNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaNatural Science Foundation of Jiangsu ProvinceNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsCensoring (clinical trials)OverdispersionWeibull distributionInferenceStatisticsEvent dataComputer scienceRandom effects modelEvent (particle physics)Likelihood functionMonte Carlo methodQuasi-likelihoodMathematicsEconometricsCovariateMaximum likelihoodCount dataArtificial intelligencePoisson distributionMedicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Clustered time-to-event data are quite common in survival analysis and finding a suitable model to account for dispersion as well as censoring is an important issue. In this article, we present a flexible model for repeated, overdispersed time-to-event data with right censoring. Building on the work by Molenberghs et al. , we present here a general model by incorporating generalized gamma and normal random effects in a Weibull distribution to accommodate overdispersion and data hierarchies, respectively. Due to the intractable integrals involved in the likelihood function and its derivatives, Monte Carlo approach is used to approximate the involved integrals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the model are then numerically determined. An extensive simulation study is then conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the method of inference developed here. Finally, the usefulness of the model is demonstrated by analyzing a data on recurrent asthma attacks in children and a recurrent bladder data set known in the survival analysis literature.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.020
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.045
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.107

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0200.045
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0030.004
Bibliometrics0.0030.004
Science and technology studies0.0010.004
Scholarly communication0.0020.004
Open science0.0060.003
Research integrity0.0040.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.563
GPT teacher head0.483
Teacher spread0.080 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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