The role of environmental stress in promoting mutators through evolutionary rescue: quantitative predictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The role of mutation rate in evolutionary rescue has been extensively explored, but little work has investigated how evolutionary rescue can promote mutators, lineages with higher mutation rates. Under complete linkage, we investigate the likelihood of evolutionary rescue on a mutator background that either emerges de novo or pre-exists in the population prior to a severe environmental change. If such an evolutionary rescue event occurs, the mutator lineage sweeps into the population, and thus the environmental stress has promoted mutators. Our findings indicate that mutation rate evolution can substantially boost rescue probabilities, but stronger mutators are most effective when the wildtype has a low mutation rate, while their advantage diminishes for higher wildtype mutation rates. Interestingly, at intermediate wildtype mutation rates, emerging mutators can be almost equally likely to sweep no matter how slowly or quickly the environment changes. However, at low wildtype mutation rates, mutators are only likely to sweep for very slow environmental changes due to the sequential nature of necessary mutations for such sweeps to occur. Finally, we show that pre-existing mutators can be significantly more likely to rescue the population compared with the wildtype, provided the wildtype's mutation rate is relatively low. This research opens new avenues for investigating mutator dynamics in response to environmental stress.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".