Validation of a Quantitative Ultrasound Texture Analysis Model for Early Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response in Breast Cancer: A Prospective Serial Imaging Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Patients with breast cancer who do not achieve a complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) may benefit from intensified adjuvant systemic therapy. However, such treatment escalation is typically delayed until after tumour resection, which occurs several months into the treatment course. Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) can detect early microstructural changes in tumours and may enable timely identification of non-responders during NAC, allowing for earlier treatment intensification. In our previous prospective observational study, 100 breast cancer patients underwent QUS imaging before and four times during NAC. Machine learning algorithms based on QUS texture features acquired in the first week of treatment were developed and achieved 78% accuracy in predicting treatment response. In the current study, we aimed to validate these algorithms in an independent prospective cohort to assess reproducibility and confirm their clinical utility. METHODS: We included breast cancer patients eligible for NAC per standard of care, with tumours larger than 1.5 cm. QUS imaging was acquired at baseline and during the first week of treatment. Tumour response was defined as a ≥30% reduction in target lesion size on the resection specimen compared to baseline imaging. RESULTS: A total of 51 patients treated between 2018 and 2021 were included (median age 49 years; median tumour size 3.6 cm). Most were estrogen receptor-positive (65%) or HER2-positive (33%), and the majority received dose-dense AC-T (n = 34, 67%) or FEC-D (n = 15, 29%) chemotherapy, with or without trastuzumab. The support vector machine algorithm achieved an area under the curve of 0.71, with 86% accuracy, 91% specificity, 50% sensitivity, 93% negative predictive value, and 43% positive predictive value for predicting treatment response. Misclassifications were primarily associated with poorly defined tumours and difficulties in accurately identifying the region of interest. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings validate QUS-based machine learning models for early prediction of chemotherapy response and support their potential as non-invasive tools for treatment personalization and clinical trial development focused on early treatment intensification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".