Global Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
For the second year in a row, record-high global surface temperatures were set in 2024, according to all six global temperature datasets assessed in this report (Berkeley Earth, GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, the NOAA Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis [NOAAGlobalTemp], ERA5, and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century [JRA-3Q]). The last time consecutive years set records was in 2015 and 2016 when a strong El Niño similarly boosted global temperatures. The last 10 years (2015–24) are now the warmest 10 in the instrumental record—warmer than the 2011–20 average—and hence “more likely than not warmer than any multi-century period after the last interglacial period, roughly 125,000 years ago” (Gulev et al. 2021). The increased energy within the climate system is detectable at the top of the atmosphere, with the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly continuing to be above the range of natural variability.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.340 | 0.221 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".