Systemic Capital Market Risks and the Politics of Improvisation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The chapter describes the contemporary history of efforts to manage risks to global financial stability. States seek to control the capital markets upon which they depend. But they sometimes also open them up, both to attract foreign investment capital and to provide outlets for national investments abroad. This makes them harder to control with national regulatory and supervisory policies and practices alone. Ever since the end of World War II, despite periodic crises and attendant backsliding, a trend toward capital market openness has gathered pace. Mindful of past sorrows, banks and other intermediaries, as well as the governments licensing and overseeing them, have sought new ways to cover the rising risks involved. Their joint project may accurately be viewed as an increasingly complex experiment in global reinsurance-as-governance. Unlike the nuclear case, the politics enabling it have been improvisatory, and relevant policy decisions have mainly been ad hoc in nature. This is explained by the sensitivity of the fiscal commitments implicated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.022 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".