The Phosphorus Factbook
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phosphorus is a geological legacy.Without phosphorus there is no life.Without phosphorus fertilizer, the current state of global development is not thinkable.Given the present form of agriculture, about half of today's food production depends on mineral fertilizers.Yet terrestrial phosphorus deposits are finite, with higher grade ores targeted first by mining companies.The demand for mineral fertilizer is increasing due to increasing world population but also because of increasing food consumption per person and diet change due to growing prosperity in industrializing countries.At the same time, agricultural production is increasingly challenged by climate change.Against this background, the short-, mid-term-, and long-term supply security of mineral phosphorus is of critical importance.This book argues that long-term supply security (> 1,000 years) is given.It provides detailed knowledge about the demand side and the multiple flows and losses.Better understanding of phosphorus flows promotes an insight into the exceptionally low total use efficiency.Only far less than 10% of phosphorus allocated for food production ends up in human consumption.In order to address these issues, this book provides a conceptual framework, presenting a description and modeling of the regulating mechanisms of supply, demand, and supply-demand dynamics.It sketches the most relevant classification systems of phosphorus deposits and outlines how they are related and how they should be improved to provide reliable, comparable classification, acceptable for mining companies, geological surveys, science, industry, politicians, nongovernmental organizations and the public.To anticipate how future phosphate reserves will increase, e.g., by rising market values of phosphorus, we introduce the Cumulative Availability Curve (CAC) approach.The data presented for supply and demand dynamics reveal that-given our current knowledge-due to the abundance of phosphate rock, sufficient phosphorus supply will be provided for one thousand years and beyond, rather than for three hundred years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.010 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".