Interacting Sea‐Level Rise, Sea‐Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea‐ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea‐level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non‐linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea‐level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low‐lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".