Bibliographic record
Abstract
<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a global agreement to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. It requires the phase out of the production of long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) that are intended for use in emissive applications. The Protocol does not, however, limit the release to the atmosphere of ODSs that currently exist in applications and equipment. Accounting for emissions from these “banked” ODSs (e.g., in insulating foams) is important for monitoring the success of and compliance with the Protocol, for understanding where further mitigation of ODS emissions might be effective, and for estimating future ozone depletion. Here, we present a new bottom-up model for 1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane (HCFC-141b), a chemical used primarily in foam insulation and whose production is currently being phased out. Using this refined model, we calculate global emissions that are similar to those derived from atmospheric measurements for the period from 1990 to 2017. After 2017, our modelled emissions are increasingly lower than the observationally based estimates through the end of the comparison in 2021. This discrepancy suggests either a growing additional source of emissions that is inconsistent with reported production or a model deficiency that did not exist or was not apparent before 2017. Our calculations also show that the easily accessible bank will be much smaller in the future than the total bank estimated in other recent work, with important implications for the feasibility of recovering and destroying banks before the release of HCFC-141b to the atmosphere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".