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Record W4413357838 · doi:10.69554/koqc1065

Crafting magic: Building a predictive model based on donor affinity

2025· article· en· W4413357838 on OpenAlexaff
Nigel Henriques

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of education advancement & marketing. · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldBusiness, Management and Accounting
TopicIslamic Finance and Banking Studies
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMAGIC (telescope)Computer sciencePhysicsAstronomy

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

At the University of Waterloo (UW), the Annual Giving programmes aim to scale fundraising efforts while providing a personalised experience for donors. By analysing collected data, institutions can gain insights into donors’ interests, enhancing engagement and philanthropic contributions. Limited resources, however, often hinder the effective implementation of mass personalisation. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities faced by the UW in improving response rates for bulk appeals, such as Giving Tuesday, Renewal and Short Lapsed campaigns. The traditional ‘Last Gift’ segmentation method, while straightforward, is cumbersome and relies heavily on manual data preparation. To address these issues, we developed a prototype donor affinity model (DAM) that leverages donor data to predict and align fundraising efforts with donor interests. This model aims to enhance the effectiveness of our annual giving programmes by moving beyond last-gift analysis to a more comprehensive understanding of donor behaviour. This paper focuses on improving response rates for bulk appeals, starting with Giving Tuesday, using a donor affinity approach. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.563
Threshold uncertainty score0.681

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.267
Teacher spread0.258 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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