Increase of early-onset colorectal cancer: a cohort effect
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Increasing incidence rates of early-onset colorectal cancer (ie, <50 years of age) have been reported across multiple countries. We investigated long-term cancer incidence data from 1995 or earlier from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States separately by sex. Estimated annual percentage change and age-period-cohort models were used to assess trends by country and sex. All countries showed increasing early-onset colorectal cancer incidence in successive birth cohorts since 1960, with individuals born in the 1990s facing at least 4-fold higher risks than individuals born in the 1960s. Cohort effects were observed across all countries, with sharper increases at younger ages. Over the most recent decade, the estimated annual percentage change ranged from 3.4% in Australia and the United States to 4.5% in England, with steep rises before age 40 years. The emergence of these trends from ages 20 to 29 years suggests that contributing factors may originate early in life and reflect exposures whose effect begin in youth and accumulate throughout the lifespan.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".