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Assessing regression-based deep learning for river ice estimation from drone images

2025· article· en· W4413640845 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Victoria Litalien, Jason Duguay, Mélanie Trudel, Samuel Foucher, Jérôme Théau, M. Fouquet

Bibliographic record

VenueCold Regions Science and Technology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicArctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Canadian institutionsUniversité de Sherbrooke
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsDroneRegressionRegression analysisGeologyEstimationDeep learningArtificial intelligenceRemote sensingEnvironmental scienceComputer scienceMachine learningEngineeringStatisticsMathematics

Abstract

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The concentration of frazil ice, crucial to the development of river ice covers and the numerical modeling of ice cover development, is challenging to measure in situ. Remote sensing using deep neural networks on images of frazil drift ice taken from drone is promising but faces challenges due to limited annotated datasets and difficulty in visually distinguishing ice types and boundaries. In this work, a method for acquiring and processing optical drone river ice images was developed to estimate the concentration of frazil drift ice, mostly in frazil slush form. Drone images were acquired on four mesoscale rivers (widths of ≈ 30 to 100 m) situated in the south of the Province of Quebec, Canada during the 2022–2023 and the 2023–2024 winter. A first Convolutional Neural Network was trained to perform an initial classification. This Convolutional Neural Network, the static ice model, was trained to segment the images in four classes: water, static ice, trees above water and other. Despite a few minor classification errors, the model was used to estimate the extent of static ice cover. Once the initial classification was made, the frazil drift ice concentration was estimated by taking into account only the flow zone. To do so, two Convolutional Neural Networks were trained with the same dataset but annotated with two different techniques: semantic segmentation and regression. Following the analysis of the results, it was concluded that regression is highly promising for estimating frazil drift ice concentration, particularly when the ice is in slush form and at high concentrations. The differences between the concentrations obtained using this method and those obtained manually are quite small (between 0 % and 2.2 %). With the same annotation effort as regression, the segmentation technique shows higher deviations (between 0.1 % and 9.4 %). The segmentation trained model encounters challenges in accurately identifying water areas surrounded by frazil and tend to extend frazil boundaries beyond their actual limits, which lead to an overestimation of the frazil drift ice concentration. These results confirm the potential of using drone imagery to train a regression-annotated Convolutional Neural Network for estimating frazil surface concentration in mesoscale rivers.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Bench or experimental · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.036
Threshold uncertainty score0.071

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.010
GPT teacher head0.258
Teacher spread0.247 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designBench or experimental
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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