Exploring the impact of the Great Green Wall on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land over the Sahel. However, its potential impacts on the far-afield climate have hitherto not been evaluated. Here, we use a high-resolution regional climate model to evaluate the potential impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone (ATC) activity in four different GGW scenarios under two emission pathways. The results reveal a shift in ATC genesis from the subtropical and western Atlantic to the eastern Main Development Region under medium to extreme vegetation density scenarios, compared to cases without the GGW. An increase in genesis is also observed off the coasts of eastern Florida and the Carolinas under the high-concentration pathway. However, no significant change in basin-wide TC frequency is found. Instead, the main impact of GGW appears to be a redistribution of tropical cyclogenesis within the basin. Our analysis highlights the primary role of African Easterly Waves in driving changes in TC genesis across the eastern MDR, while large-scale environmental factors – though secondary overall - primarily influence changes off the southeastern U.S. coast. No GGW-induced changes are found in the ATC intensity, translation speed or other TC metrics across the entire basin.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".