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Novel Data Driven High Dimensional Volatility Networks and Dynamic Price Networks

2025· article· en· W4413679288 on OpenAlexaff
Avanthi Saumyamala, Sulalitha Bowala, Md Erfanul Hoque, A. Thavaneswaran, Alex Paseka, Ruppa K. Thulasiram

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsUniversity of SaskatchewanUniversity of WinnipegSaskatchewan Health AuthorityUniversity of Manitoba
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVolatility (finance)Computer scienceEconometricsEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This study investigates data-driven financial correlation networks with a particular focus on modeling log returns using a data-driven t-distribution. A key contribution is showing that the covariance matrix of absolute log returns, used in volatility networks can be expressed as a function of the sign correlation and the covariance matrix of log returns. Fuzzy adjacency matrices are introduced to account for the uncertainty inherent in correlation estimates that depend on the degrees of freedom. Using data from 55 stocks across 13 sectors and S&P500 (big data), we compare four different networks based on correlations of log returns, volatility of log returns, data-driven volatility of log returns and sign(±) of returns. Three dynamic networks based on price correlations, ARIMA innovation correlations of the price and neuro innovation correlations of the price are also considered. All seven networks are evaluated using metrics such as average node degree, sparsity, and maximum eigenvalue. Unlike the existing work, the novelty of this study is demonstrating a relationship between data driven volatility networks and recently proposed volatility correlation networks without using distributional properties. Three different community detection algorithms demonstrate that the proposed data-driven volatility network proposed in this paper has a higher modularity score.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.008
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.008
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.776
Threshold uncertainty score0.966

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0080.008
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.003
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.089
GPT teacher head0.398
Teacher spread0.310 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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