Artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram guidance for pulmonary valve replacement timing in repaired tetralogy of Fallot
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Optimal timing of pulmonary valve replacement (PVR) in repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) remains challenging. We hypothesized that pre-PVR artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram (AI-ECG) may inform optimal PVR timing in rTOF. METHODS: rTOF PVR patients at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH) and Toronto General Hospital (TGH) with analyzable ECGs ≤3 months pre-PVR were included. Patients undergoing PVR were propensity score-matched 1:1 to non-PVR patients. Patients were partitioned into risk tertiles based on pre-PVR AI-ECG probabilities of 5-year mortality: low-, intermediate-, and high-risk. RESULTS: The PVR cohort included 605 patients (504 at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH), 101 at Toronto General Hospital (TGH); median age 20.3 [IQR, 13.6-32.0] years; median follow-up 7.5 [IQR, 4.7-10.6] years; 3.6% mortality). Pre-PVR AI-ECG risk probability was predictive of post-PVR mortality (c-index 0.77), outperforming an established imaging-based model benchmark (c-index 0.70). AI-ECG remained an independent predictor when added to the benchmark model (P < .001) with a higher c-index of 0.84. Survival was similar between low- and intermediate-risk groups (97-98% 15-year survival; P = .6), with increased mortality for the high-risk group (83% 15-year survival; P = .009). The matched cohort demonstrated that PVR was associated with increased survival overall (HR 0.28 [95% CI, 0.13-0.60], P = .001). Exploratory analyses stratified by risk group tertiles showed survival benefit associated with PVR in the intermediate-risk (HR 0.10 [95% CI, 0.01-0.86]; P = .04) and high-risk (HR 0.3 [0.1-0.7]; P = .005) groups, but not in the low-risk group (P = .8). CONCLUSIONS: AI-ECG predicts post-PVR survival in rTOF patients with a PVR survival benefit in intermediate- and high-risk, but not low-risk, groups. AI-ECG may complement imaging biomarkers to determine rTOF PVR timing.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".