Maximum Entropy Modeling Loggerhead Shrike Distribution in Southern Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Loggerhead Shrike is a critically endangered species in Ontario[1] and with climate change increasingly threatening avian habitats[2], it is expected to become even more endangered in the years to come. Additionally, the habitat of the Loggerhead Shrike is not comprehensively understood[3] which makes it an interesting subject of study. Across Ontario, the Loggerhead Shrike is found notably in two distinct pockets: one is around Napanee, and the other is just Northeast of Lake Simcoe, an area at risk of development. This study focuses on the second area and aims to leverage distribution modeling technology in the hopes of a) identifying suitable areas for the Loggerhead Shrike and b) creating a clearer picture of the bird’s ideal habitat. Given a lack of species absence data, a Presence-Only Prediction (MaxEnt) model is used within ArcGIS Pro to create a prediction surface based on input presence points from iNaturalist. Extensive research was done to choose a set of environmental variables[4] (e.g., land cover, elevation, NDVI, etc.) to be tested for significance in the model. The preliminary outputs of the model are then tested for accuracy through both an automated (resampling) and custom validation method. The latter is done by plotting the observed points against their model-predicted presence values and comparing that to an ideal scenario, in which the model’s success at identifying suitable habitats is quantitatively estimated and subsequently re-tested with different parameters and variables. Preliminary results show that low elevations, grasslands, and significant distance from roads are key habitat-determining elements. There is potential for this approach to be used in conservation efforts for nesting birds more generally. [1] Government of Ontario. (2007). Endangered Species Act, 2007, S.O. 2007, c. 6. [2] Trautmann, S. (2018). Climate change impacts on bird species. Bird Species: How they arise, modify and vanish, 217-234. |[3] Chabot, A. A., Titman, R. D., & Bird, D. M. (2001). Habitat use by loggerhead shrikes in Ontario and Quebec. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 79(5), 916-925. [4] Government of Canada; Government of Ontario; U.S. Geological Survey
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".