Combinatorial prediction of therapeutic perturbations using causally inspired neural networks
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phenotype-driven approaches identify disease-counteracting compounds by analysing the phenotypic signatures that distinguish diseased from healthy states. Here we introduce PDGrapher, a causally inspired graph neural network model that predicts combinatorial perturbagens (sets of therapeutic targets) capable of reversing disease phenotypes. Unlike methods that learn how perturbations alter phenotypes, PDGrapher solves the inverse problem and predicts the perturbagens needed to achieve a desired response by embedding disease cell states into networks, learning a latent representation of these states, and identifying optimal combinatorial perturbations. In experiments in nine cell lines with chemical perturbations, PDGrapher identifies effective perturbagens in more testing samples than competing methods. It also shows competitive performance on ten genetic perturbation datasets. An advantage of PDGrapher is its direct prediction, in contrast to the indirect and computationally intensive approach common in phenotype-driven models. It trains up to 25× faster than existing methods, providing a fast approach for identifying therapeutic perturbations and advancing phenotype-driven drug discovery.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it