Unveiling Mexico's Demographic Transitions
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines Mexico's fertility transition (1930-2015) and how socioeconomic status (SES), geography, and indigeneity shaped reproductive behaviors. Using net fertility-the number of surviving children under five-we assess how prestige bias (adopting high-status fertility norms) and conformism bias (aligning with local norms) influenced change across distinct population groups. We introduce the time, space, and population model to analyze the combined effects of macrostructural forces, spatial diffusion, and individual decision-making. Our spatial analysis reveals a concentric diffusion pattern, where fertility changes spread outward from urban, high-SES municipalities. Findings reveal a consistent negative association between SES and fertility across all periods, though with varying intensity. Higher status populations led the fertility decline, but patterns differed by group and over time. Fertility declined at different rates across four groups: urban non-Indigenous populations transitioned rapidly, rural non-Indigenous groups stagnated, rural Indigenous populations experienced delays, and urban Indigenous groups resisted fertility decline. Evidence suggests non-Indigenous populations regulated fertility through retarding marriage before widespread contraceptive adoption, while Indigenous groups followed more conformist behaviors. This study integrates historical demographic data into a structured framework, improving research on long-term fertility transitions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it