Examining Municipal Non-Partisanship: The Relationship Between Mayoral and Provincial/Federal Elections in Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the common notion that municipal politics are immune to partisan influence, empirical evidence challenges this assumption. Analyzing data from Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, and Windsor, this study reveals a significant relationship between mayoral candidate vote share and provincial/federal party vote share. Specifically, left-leaning mayoral candidate cote share correlates with higher NDP and ONDP support, while right-leaning candidates perform better in areas with increased CPC and PCPO backing. Furthermore, a nuanced and more complex relationship between mayoral vote share and LPC and OLP support is uncovered. These findings challenge the perception of municipal elections as solely driven by local issues, suggesting instead a substantial influence of partisan affiliations. The paper underscores the need to reassess the role of partisanship in ostensibly non-partisan municipal politics and acknowledge the role of partisanship in shaping electoral outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".