OBSERVATIONAL, VIROLOGIC, AND SEROLOGIC DATA PROVIDE INSIGHTS INTO AN OUTBREAK OF HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA AMONG WILD BIRDS ON THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA, ALASKA, USA, IN 2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2021-22, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses were introduced by wild birds into North America, leading to geographically widespread disease. In response to HPAI outbreaks throughout late 2021 and early 2022, we recorded observations of sick and dead birds, estimated abundance of carcasses, collected swab and sera samples to detect viruses, and monitored bird nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region of Alaska to document potential effects of disease. Thirty-six reports of sick and dead birds were registered across the region. Nineteen carcasses were opportunistically collected for diagnostic testing, of which 12 were confirmed to be infected with clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI viruses. Carcass abundance estimates from line-distance sampling provided evidence that the most common species of dead birds from the western Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region were Cackling Goose (Branta hutchinsii minima), Glaucous Gull (Larus hyperboreus), and Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Only one paired cloacal and oropharyngeal swab sample from a Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) tested positive for clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus, out of 464 live-captured duck and goose samples. Of 195 sera samples from waterfowl screened for antibodies reactive to influenza A viruses, antibodies were found in 41-98% of samples collected from Emperor Goose (Anser canagicus), Cackling Goose, Black Brant, and Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri). In addition, 15-98% of the same sera samples were reactive to a clade 2.3.4.4b H5 antigen. Fewer Black Brant and Emperor Goose nests were found on long-term study plots during 2022 than in previous years. Collectively, we found that HPAI viruses affected at least seven species of wild birds inhabiting the region during 2022. The full scope of impacts of HPAI at this location during 2022 is unknown, but our data indicate that acute effects to avian population health on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region were likely modest.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".