E-Commerce Revolution: How the Pandemic Reshaped the US Consumer Shopping Habits: A PACF and ARIMA Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accelerated digital transformations and the evolution of consumer behavior in recent years underscore the need for a systemic perspective in marketing analytics to better comprehend the complex interplay between technology, data, and the profound changes triggered by global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a massive shift toward digitalization and transformed e-commerce from an option to a necessity for both businesses and consumers. This paper analyzes the total store and non-store sales, as well as total e-commerce sales, of the US retail trade across six main business categories and nine subcategories from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2024. The data was divided into three time spans, corresponding to pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 pandemic periods, to examine the changing behavior of US consumers over time for different business categories. The statistical and econometric methods employed are the partial autocorrelation function (PACF), autocorrelation function, autoregressive integrated moving average model, inferential statistics, and regression model. The results indicate that the pandemic significantly increased non-store retailer sales compared to the pre-pandemic period, underscoring the importance of e-commerce. When physical stores reopened, e-commerce sales did not decline to pre-pandemic levels. The PACF analysis showed seasonality and lagged correlations. Thus, the pandemic-induced buying behaviors of US consumers continue to influence current sales patterns. The pandemic was more than just a temporary disruption, which permanently changed the retail sector. Retailers that quickly adapted to online models gained a competitive edge, whereas US consumers became accustomed to the convenience and flexibility of e-commerce. The behavior of US consumers adapted not only in response to immediate needs during the pandemic but also led to longer-term shifts in spending patterns, with each category reacting uniquely based on product type and perceived necessity. The analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic transformed consumer behavior in the US reveals several important implications for both consumers and trade policymakers. First, the long-lasting and structural shift toward e-commerce is confirmed, representing a fundamental change in the dynamics of demand and supply. For consumers, the convenience, flexibility, and accessibility of digital channels have moved beyond mere situational advantages to become a behavioral norm. This shift has empowered consumers by giving them greater access to price comparisons, more diverse options, and increased informational transparency. Additionally, the data shows the emergence of hybrid consumption models: essential goods are mainly purchased online, while purchases of branded clothing, electronics, furniture, luxury items, and similar products continue to favor the traditional retail experience.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".