Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Outcomes following Preemptive Kidney Transplant Waitlisting in the United States from 2009 to 2024
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Key Points Among US preemptively waitlisted patients with CKD, deceased donor transplants increased for Black and Hispanic patients, comparable with White patients. Dialysis initiation was higher for waitlisted Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients compared with White patients, mirroring lower living donor transplants. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network wait time credit and Increasing Organ Transplant Access metric could expand preemptive transplantation. Background Preemptive kidney transplantation (before dialysis initiation) is the optimal therapy for most transplant-eligible advanced patients with CKD. Although prior research has documented racial and ethnic disparities in preemptive referrals, less is known about distinct outcomes after preemptive waitlisting. This study examines the association between race and ethnicity and outcomes for preemptively waitlisted patients. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospectively maintained US cohort using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. The study population included 98,863 adult first-time kidney transplant candidates who were preemptively waitlisted from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2020, and followed through December 31, 2024. The exposure of interest was race and ethnicity. The primary outcome was 3-year preemptive deceased donor kidney transplantation, living donor kidney transplantation, or dialysis initiation. We used competing risk models to estimate adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios (aSHRs). Data were stratified into 3-year intervals (2009–2011, 2012–2014, 2015–2017, and 2018–2020). Results Black and Hispanic patients received preemptive deceased donor kidney transplants as often as White patients (era 2018–2020, aSHRs [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.99 [95% CI, 0.92 to 1.07] and 1.02 [95% CI, 0.93 to 1.12], respectively), while Asian patients had lower rates (0.78 [95% CI, 0.69 to 0.88]). However, Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients were more likely to initiate dialysis (aSHRs: 1.50 [95% CI, 1.39 to 1.61]; 1.41 [95% CI, 1.34 to 1.49]; and 1.21 [95% CI, 1.14 to 1.29], respectively) and were less likely to receive preemptive living donor kidney transplants than White patients (era 2018–2020, aSHRs: 0.49 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.54]; 0.31 [95% CI, 0.29 to 0.34]; and 0.61 [95% CI, 0.56 to 0.66], respectively). Conclusions Among waitlisted patients with CKD in the United States between 2009 and 2020, rates of preemptive deceased donor kidney transplantation improved for Black and Hispanic patients and became comparable with White patients. However, Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients experienced higher rates of dialysis initiation and lower rates of preemptive living donor kidney transplantation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".