The PeatPic project: predicting plot-scale green leaf phenology across peatlands
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Peatlands store approximately one-third of the world’s soil carbon (C), but their functioning is highly variable at fine spatial scales due to differences in vegetation cover and environmental conditions such as water table depth. This fine-scale heterogeneity plays a key role in carbon dynamics yet capturing it—particularly in relation to green leaf phenology (GLP)—is challenging with traditional remote sensing methods. To address this, we developed a smartphone-based methodology and community-science project called the PeatPic Project. We gathered over 3700 photographs from 27 sites across 10 countries in 2021 and 2022, representing different peatland types (bog, fen, and swamp), at 1–2 week intervals. We calculated GLP metrics, such as the data of the start of the season and end of the season, based on the red-blue-green bands from these photographs. We found that GLP metrics varied significantly across peatland types and dominant vegetation communities. Notably, peak greenness at bog sites occurring approximately 10 days later in the year compared to fen sites. Furthermore, variables relation to peatland/vegetation type and energy balance were key predictors of peatland GLP. The PeatPic Project’s readily available methodology offers low-cost opportunities for further research into peatland phenology, enabling the calculation of additional phenological indices and integration with other data types. By refining our understanding of peatland GLP, we can improve predictive C modelling and better assess the impacts of future changes on these important ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".