Development and validation of a gene expression signature to predict early events in patients with follicular lymphoma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT: Although follicular lymphoma (FL) typically follows an indolent course, patients with FL who experience early events, such as transformation or progression, have increased risk of death related to lymphoma. The FL24Cx is an algorithm based on a 45-target gene expression profiling (GEP) assay, which was developed and trained using 265 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples on a reliable platform to predict, at the time of diagnosis, whether a patient will experience an event within 24 months. The modeling also confirmed and relied upon previously reported synergy between immune response (IR) gene expression signatures IR1 and IR2. Once locked, the 5-factor logistic regression FL24Cx model was independently validated in a retrospectively assessed cohort of 232 patients from 2 immunochemotherapy-treated arms of SWOG Cancer Research Network S0016 phase 3 clinical trial, in which it assigned 169 patients to the low-risk group with 29 events before 24 months (17.2%) and 63 patients to the high-risk group with 24 events before 24 months (38.1%). The relative risk of an event within 24 months after registration among patients who were classified into the high-risk group relative to patients who were classified into the low-risk group was 2.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 3.51). An up-front GEP biomarker, such as the FL24Cx, rigorously validated in a clinical laboratory and with a clinically relevant turnaround time, could identify and steer enrollment of patients at high risk for early events in clinical trials, thus enabling timely interpretation of such trials and increasing the pace of innovation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".