Hydrothermal Modeling of Groundwater–Surface Water Interactions Under an Evolving Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Groundwater–surface water interactions play a critical role in regulating river temperature and flow, particularly in northern regions affected by climate change. This study evaluates the influence of climate warming on groundwater discharge for two rivers in Quebec: the Sainte-Marguerite River, located in a humid continental zone without permafrost, and the Berard River, situated in a subpolar continental zone with discontinuous permafrost. Using two-dimensional hydrothermal modeling supported by field data, the analysis reveals that climate warming will increase groundwater seepage into both river systems. The effect is notably more pronounced in permafrost regions, where thawing accelerates subsurface flow. Model projections indicate that permafrost near the Berard River may vanish by 2040 under high-emission scenarios or by 2070 under low-emission scenarios. This transition is expected to result in more than a thirtyfold increase in groundwater discharge by the end of the century. These findings highlight the growing influence of groundwater in shaping river hydrology under changing climatic conditions and underscore the need to incorporate subsurface flow dynamics into future water resource management and habitat conservation strategies in northern environments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".