Assessing hydrological response to future climate change in a small Mediterranean watershed (North-Algeria)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study aims to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of the upper basin of Oued El Harrach. Rainfall and temperature outputs of the RCA4 model, forced by the global circulation model MPI-ESM-LR, were used to evaluate future changes. The GR2M hydrological model was used to reproduce future streamflow of the basin for a mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2070–2100) period under two representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Bias correction methods were used to improve hydrological simulations. The findings shown that, future changes in precipitation and temperature affect negatively streamflow, across the basin. An increase in temperature (from 1.3°C to 3.9°C) coupled with a decrease in precipitation (from −17% to −42% in wet seasons) is expected to lead to a significant decline in streamflow. Projected streamflow will change from −75% to +44% in autumn, from −26% to −67% in winter, from −6% to −47% in spring and from −37% to −80% in summer. The future changes in flows are depending on the emission scenarios, the bias correction methods and the projected period. Analysing future hydrological behaviour of the basin will help authorities understand climate change impacts on water resources, guiding sustainable water and agriculture strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".