Nonparametric Density Estimation of a Long-Term Trend from Repeated Semicontinuous Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider nonparametric estimation of the density of the long-term trend of a semicontinuous variable observed repeatedly over time. These variables arise when measuring the intensity of an intermittent phenomenon, such as the intake of an episodically consumed nutrient or the concentration of an intermittent toxic substance: when the phenomenon is absent, the measurement is equal to zero; otherwise, it is positive. Semicontinuous data are usually represented by a two-part model describing the zeros and the nonzeros separately, often under parametric assumptions. Recently, Camirand Lemyre et al. (2022) showed that it is possible to relax the distributional assumptions on the part that models the nonzeros, but like other existing work, they used a parametric model for the conditional probability H of observing a nonzero value. We develop a nonparametric estimator of H and of the density of the long-term trend. We illustrate our method on simulated examples and apply it to estimate the density of long-term fruit intake, using data from the Eating at America’s Table Study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.044 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".