The Net Radiative Forcing from Ozone-Depleting Substances and its Uncertainty
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The effective radiative forcing of long-lived ozone-depleting substances is large, around 15-20% of CO2. Their net effective radiative forcing, which considers the wider chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere, is less well understood. Here, we use a simple climate model, which has been adapted to consider the radiative feedbacks from ozone-depleting substances, to quantify this uncertainty. We find that the effective radiative forcing of ozone-depleting substances in 2019 of 0.35 (0.31, 0.39) Wm-2 reduces to a net radiative forcing of 0.11 (-0.02, 0.26) mWm-2, considering feedbacks. We use this simple model to quantify the net effective radiative forcing of each individual ozone-depleting substance and feedback. Most of the net radiative forcing from ozone-depleting substances is from CFC-12 and HCFCs, while others have mitigated the warming impact. This results in an increase in the net radiative forcing from ozone-depleting substances in 2019 compared to when the Montreal Protocol was implemented in 1987.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".