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Record W4414639866 · doi:10.1007/978-981-96-7933-1_6

Seven Generations of Canada’s Cities: The Halftime Report

2025· book-chapter· en· W4414639866 on OpenAlex
Daniel Hoornweg

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.

Bibliographic record

VenueAdvances in 21st century human settlements · 2025
Typebook-chapter
Languageen
FieldAgricultural and Biological Sciences
TopicRural development and sustainability
Canadian institutionsOntario Tech University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPer capitaSustainabilityClimate changeStaffingPopulationGeopoliticsChinaSocial unrestScale (ratio)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

A halftime report for Canada’s cities over a 200-year span (about seven generations) suggests two distinct halves. In the first half, Canada saw unprecedented and unmatched economic growth, an average annual 2.7% increase in GDP from 1920 to 2020. Economic growth in the second half, 2020–2120, however, will likely be below one percent. This is an enormous difference, compounded by higher levels of debt, a much less benign climate, and growing geopolitical tensions. Future Canadians may not be placated by the fact they are luckier than most of the rest of the world if compared to previous generations their quality of life is declining. Because of their high per capita resource use, Canadians are well-positioned to lead the shift to sustainability that will arrive in lockstep with the energy transition and post-peak population (~ 2080). Key trends for Canadian cities include: (i) severity of global climate impacts and scale of resulting climate migrants and refugees; (ii) significant variability in Canadian climate beyond 2050; (iii) enhanced productivity, overall well-being and the ability to attract and keep immigrants; (iv) the degree of social unrest and local and international agitation, especially in cities; (v) possible claims on Canadian sovereignty, geopolitical tensions, especially from shifting locus of economic activity—from OECD-member countries to Asia (East and South) and eventually Africa; (vi) continued strength of USA and amicable tri-lateral relations, within USMCA framework or subsequent; (vii) infrastructure and provisions of urban services vis-a-vis climate change, staffing capabilities, aging facilities and maintenance; (viii) peak resource use (dates and magnitude), including oil and gas production post-2030; (ix) resilience and climate adaptation, especially of major cities and large-scale infrastructure; geopolitical tensions and shifts in energy and material supply chains; and (x) impact from possible low-likelihood, high-impact events such as geomagnetic storms, earthquakes, and pandemics.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: Other
Teacher disagreement score0.743
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.010
GPT teacher head0.234
Teacher spread0.224 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it