Bibliographic record
Abstract
A halftime report for Canada’s cities over a 200-year span (about seven generations) suggests two distinct halves. In the first half, Canada saw unprecedented and unmatched economic growth, an average annual 2.7% increase in GDP from 1920 to 2020. Economic growth in the second half, 2020–2120, however, will likely be below one percent. This is an enormous difference, compounded by higher levels of debt, a much less benign climate, and growing geopolitical tensions. Future Canadians may not be placated by the fact they are luckier than most of the rest of the world if compared to previous generations their quality of life is declining. Because of their high per capita resource use, Canadians are well-positioned to lead the shift to sustainability that will arrive in lockstep with the energy transition and post-peak population (~ 2080). Key trends for Canadian cities include: (i) severity of global climate impacts and scale of resulting climate migrants and refugees; (ii) significant variability in Canadian climate beyond 2050; (iii) enhanced productivity, overall well-being and the ability to attract and keep immigrants; (iv) the degree of social unrest and local and international agitation, especially in cities; (v) possible claims on Canadian sovereignty, geopolitical tensions, especially from shifting locus of economic activity—from OECD-member countries to Asia (East and South) and eventually Africa; (vi) continued strength of USA and amicable tri-lateral relations, within USMCA framework or subsequent; (vii) infrastructure and provisions of urban services vis-a-vis climate change, staffing capabilities, aging facilities and maintenance; (viii) peak resource use (dates and magnitude), including oil and gas production post-2030; (ix) resilience and climate adaptation, especially of major cities and large-scale infrastructure; geopolitical tensions and shifts in energy and material supply chains; and (x) impact from possible low-likelihood, high-impact events such as geomagnetic storms, earthquakes, and pandemics.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.012 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".