Quantifying macro‐evolutionary patterns of trait mean and variance with phylogenetic location–scale models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Understanding how both the mean ( location ) and variance ( scale ) of traits differ among species and lineages is fundamental to unveiling macroevolutionary patterns. Yet, traditional phylogenetic comparative methods primarily focus on modelling mean trait values, often overlooking variability and heteroscedasticity that can provide critical insights into evolutionary dynamics. Here, we introduce phylogenetic location–scale models (PLSMs), a novel framework that jointly analyses the evolution of trait means and variances. This dual approach captures heteroscedasticity and evolutionary changes in trait variability, allowing for the detection of clades with differing variances and revealing patterns of adaptation, diversification, and evolutionary constraints. Extending PLSMs to a multivariate context enables simultaneous analysis of multiple traits and their covariances, facilitating the testing of hypotheses about evolutionary trade‐offs, pleiotropy and phenotypic integration. By modelling covariances between phylogenetic effects in both the location and scale parts, we can discern whether changes in one trait's mean or variance are associated with changes in another's, thereby offering deeper insights into the mechanisms driving trait co‐evolution and co‐divergence or ‘contra‐divergence’. We also describe how an extended version of PLSMs incorporating within‐species variability can enhance our understanding of trait convergence and divergence arising from ecological and environmental factors. Our framework provides a powerful tool for exploring macroevolutionary patterns and can be used to reassess previously published comparative data, offering new insights into the mechanisms driving the diversity of life.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".