Modeling the Duration of Electricity Price Spikes Using Survival Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Electricity price spikes are the most important characteristic of the electricity price time series. Operationally, they result from various stresses in the power system or the strategic bidding behavior of market participants. These high prices are important as they represent economic opportunities in the form of profits and savings. Theoretically, price spikes are defined as prices that exceed a threshold over a typically short duration. This definition serves as the basis for several established modeling approaches in the literature. In general, the threshold component determines the design of a price spike model, often overlooking the duration aspect. Therefore, this paper presents a simple yet informative model to quantify the duration of electricity price spikes using historical price data from different market jurisdictions. We approach the problem through the lens of survival analysis, a widely used technique for evaluating time-to-event data. Specifically, we use the Kaplan–Meier (KM) estimator, which enables a nonparametric evaluation of the survival (duration) of price spikes over time. We refer to this as the price spike duration model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".