Prognostic value of liver stiffness measurement vs. biochemical response in primary biliary cholangitis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Both liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and biochemical response have prognostic significance in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). However, the frequency and clinical relevance of discordant biochemical and LSM changes remain unclear. We aim to determine the performance of the most recent or current LSM (LSMc) in predicting first hepatic decompensation (HD) in the setting of discordant biochemical and LSM responses. METHODS: In this international, multicenter study, we included patients with at least two reliable LSM performed at least 6 months apart. Patients with prior HD, liver transplantation or hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded. Biochemical response was based on the Paris-II criteria. LSM response was defined as stable or any reduction in LSM. The primary outcome was the occurrence of the first HD. Secondary outcomes were liver transplantation and liver-related death. The influence of LSM on HD was estimated using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1,793 patients with PBC were analyzed. Over a median follow-up of 22 (IQR 12-39) months, 3.3% developed HD. Up to 55% of patients with PBC exhibited discordance between LSM and biochemical response. Among patients with LSM response, achieving Paris-II criteria was associated with a lower risk of HD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.25, 95% CI 0.06-0.97, p <0.044). Among patients with biochemical response, LSM response did not influence the risk of developing HD (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.21-1.96, p = 0.429). The LSMc >10 kPa strongly predicted HD (HR 14.5, 95% CI 6.9-30.6, p <0.001), irrespective of biochemical response and prior LSM trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Discordance between LSM and biochemical response is frequent. Most recent or current LSM is the strongest predictor of first liver-related events in patients with PBC, irrespective of prior biochemical response or LSM trajectory. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Both liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and biochemical response have prognostic significance in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. However, the clinical relevance and how discordant biochemical and LSM changes should be best interpreted remain unclear. In this large international multicenter study, we demonstrated that once the current LSM is known, prior LSM trajectories and biochemical changes did not improve the prediction of liver-related events in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. Our finding addresses a common clinical dilemma in risk-stratifying PBC patients with discordant biochemical and LSM responses. Importantly, the use of the latest LSM value for risk prediction significantly simplifies the use of LSM in clinical decision-making for PBC patients with multiple LSM readings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".