A survey on the trajectory of frailty in the middle-aged and elderly population in the Chengdu community: a retrospective observational study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Frailty, a prevalent clinical condition in the aging global population, increases the risk of disability, falls, and mortality. This study explores frailty trajectories and their influencing factors among middle-aged and elderly residents in Chengdu, China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From May 2022 to April 2023, a face-to-face survey was conducted with residents of six Chengdu communities aged 50-89. Participants, all with normal cognitive function, reviewed their health conditions from age 30 to their current age. A frailty index (FI) comprising 45 parameters was calculated for each age segment. Latent class trajectory models (LCTM) were developed, and multinomial logistic regression was used to identify independent influencing factors. RESULTS: We collected 1007 valid responses, with 536 from individuals over 65 years old. Women completed 51.4% of the questionnaires. Based on the FI, 48.46% of participants had no frailty (FI = 0-0.1), 36.94% had mild frailty (FI = 0.1-0.2), and 14.60% had moderate frailty (FI > 0.2). The optimal LCTM for ages 31-70 identified four classes: Class1-high initial FI with rapid growth (n = 15, 2.80%), Class2-moderate growth (n = 215, 40.11%), Class3-slow growth (n = 187, 34.89%), and Class4-rapid growth (n = 119, 22.20%). Significant differences were observed between groups in terms of gender, service length, sleep quality, and number of chronic diseases. Class 1 had a higher proportion of females (86.67%), poorer sleep quality, and higher illness prevalence. Women were more likely to have fast-growing FI trajectories (OR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.02-4.95), and alcohol consumption was linked to rapid FI increase (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.06-4.20). Sleeping 7 + hours nightly before age 60 reduced the risk of fast-growing FI trajectories by 45% (OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.33-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Over half of Chengdu's residents aged 50 and above show some degree of frailty. Women are more likely to experience fast-growing FI trajectories. Avoiding alcohol and ensuring adequate sleep are associated with a slower progression of frailty.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".