Consensus-Driven Active Model Selection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The widespread availability of off-the-shelf machine learning models poses a challenge: which model, of the many available candidates, should be chosen for a given data analysis task? This question of model selection is traditionally answered by collecting and annotating a validation dataset -- a costly and time-intensive process. We propose a method for active model selection, using predictions from candidate models to prioritize the labeling of test data points that efficiently differentiate the best candidate. Our method, CODA, performs consensus-driven active model selection by modeling relationships between classifiers, categories, and data points within a probabilistic framework. The framework uses the consensus and disagreement between models in the candidate pool to guide the label acquisition process, and Bayesian inference to update beliefs about which model is best as more information is collected. We validate our approach by curating a collection of 26 benchmark tasks capturing a range of model selection scenarios. CODA outperforms existing methods for active model selection significantly, reducing the annotation effort required to discover the best model by upwards of 70% compared to the previous state-of-the-art. Code and data are available at https://github.com/justinkay/coda.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".