A Stylized Study of the Climate Response to Longwave and Shortwave Forcing at the Altitude of Aviation‐Induced Cirrus
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Several lines of evidence indicate that aviation‐induced cirrus clouds contribute to global warming. These clouds produce both longwave and shortwave radiative forcing, yet their climate impacts are not well understood. To improve understanding of the climate effects of radiative forcing associated with aviation‐induced cirrus clouds, we use the Community Earth System Model CESM1.2.2 to perform simulations with stylized longwave and shortwave forcing agents in different latitude bands. We find that for the same concentration, longwave absorbers in the sub‐tropics have the largest magnitude of instantaneous radiative forcing but these absorbers in the polar regions show the largest impact on global temperature. In contrast, shortwave scatterers in the low latitudes have the largest magnitude of effective and instantaneous radiative forcing, but the global temperature response is not highly sensitive to the latitude of forcing. Our results suggest that contrail‐induced warming could be reduced most effectively by avoiding aviation‐induced cirrus clouds at night, and at high latitudes during their winters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".