2000-year fish bone record reveals transition to commercial fisheries during climatic change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Animal bones from archaeological contexts can reveal the interplay between past environments and human societies. Resource acquisition shaped many aspects of past societies and influenced the development of trade networks and migration. Fish have been a cornerstone of human subsistence for millennia, yet the rise of commercial fishing and trade was complex. Here, we synthesised a database of ∼1.9 million zooarchaeological fish records spanning 2000 years across Europe. Using machine-learning of catch compositions alongside fish thermal tolerances, we show that fisheries became less local over time, with homogenisation coinciding with Little Ice Age-associated cooling, a period of documented resource scarcity, concurring with growing trade. Moreover, increased proportions of marine taxa and more specialist marine fisheries were observed in the preceding Medieval Climate Anomaly, to sustain concurrent urban and population growth. Enhanced use of marine protein buffered food insecurity, whilst signalling the transition from localised to trans-regional trade networks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".