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Logic, Belief Propagation and Misinformation

2025· article· en· W4415222651 on OpenAlexaff
Aaron Hunter

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Canadian institutionsBritish Columbia Institute of Technology
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMisinformationSet (abstract data type)False accusationSocial mediaBelief revision

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We are broadly concerned with security risks associated with the spread of misinformation. Misinformation is spread when messages are exchanged on a network, and some agents erroneously believe reports from agents that do not have suitable expertise. So the spread of misinformation is closely connected to the notion of belief change, which is a topic that has been studied extensively in the formal Artificial Intelligence (AI) community. The problem is that formal models of belief change are generally focused on fully rational agents. In practice, however, the trust that agents have in information sources is influenced by non-logical factors. For example, agents might be more likely to trust sources that have demonstrated alignment on some unrelated set of values. In this short paper, we propose a formal approach to modelling belief change that is based on a flexible kind of trust transformation, where the extent to which a source is trusted is not entirely dependent on expertise or reliability. We demonstrate how this approach can be used to capture the propagation of false facts over a social network. This is a preliminary paper outlining a basic approach, which we intend to use as the basis for software that provides logic-based recommendations related to the accuracy of information received on a social network. We see this as a kind of reasoning prosthetic, which limits the spread of information by providing transparent information that helps users understand the consequences of their own beliefs.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.937
Threshold uncertainty score0.114

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.012
GPT teacher head0.251
Teacher spread0.240 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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