Geospatial Analysis of Shoreline Shifts in the Indus Delta Using DSAS and Satellite Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pakistan’s coastline encompasses the Indus Delta, a critical ecosystem that sustains biodiversity, fisheries, and local livelihoods, yet it is increasingly threatened by both natural and anthropogenic pressures. This study quantifies multi-decadal shoreline changes in the Indus Delta and examines how changes in climatic factors (precipitation and wind) affect these changes, using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS v5.1) and multi-temporal Landsat imagery (TM, ETM+, OLI) to quantify long-term shoreline dynamics from 1990 to 2020 (30-year period). Key metrics, including End Point Rate (EPR), Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR), indicated an overall retreat, with a mean NSM of −1810 m and a mean LRR of −173 m·year across the 30-year period. Shoreline change rates exhibited a significant relationship with climatic variables, particularly wind speed and precipitation, with dynamics shifting from erosion-dominated to localized accretion in areas where mangrove rehabilitation programs were implemented after 2005. Seasonal variability further influenced shoreline behavior: low-rainfall years intensified erosion due to reduced sediment availability, while high-rainfall years enhanced accretion through increased sediment input. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated coastal management strategies, including mangrove conservation, sustainable sediment management, and climate-adaptive planning, to strengthen the resilience of the Indus Delta.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".