Geospatial Analysis of Shoreline Shifts in the Indus Delta Using DSAS and Satellite Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pakistan’s coastline encompasses the Indus Delta, a critical ecosystem that sustains biodiversity, fisheries, and local livelihoods, yet it is increasingly threatened by both natural and anthropogenic pressures. This study quantifies multi-decadal shoreline changes in the Indus Delta and examines how changes in climatic factors (precipitation and wind) affect these changes, using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS v5.1) and multi-temporal Landsat imagery (TM, ETM+, OLI) to quantify long-term shoreline dynamics from 1990 to 2020 (30-year period). Key metrics, including End Point Rate (EPR), Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR), indicated an overall retreat, with a mean NSM of −1810 m and a mean LRR of −173 m·year across the 30-year period. Shoreline change rates exhibited a significant relationship with climatic variables, particularly wind speed and precipitation, with dynamics shifting from erosion-dominated to localized accretion in areas where mangrove rehabilitation programs were implemented after 2005. Seasonal variability further influenced shoreline behavior: low-rainfall years intensified erosion due to reduced sediment availability, while high-rainfall years enhanced accretion through increased sediment input. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated coastal management strategies, including mangrove conservation, sustainable sediment management, and climate-adaptive planning, to strengthen the resilience of the Indus Delta.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".