Abstract FR480: A Quarter Century of Cardiovascular Risk: National Mortality Trends in Hypertension and Arrhythmias Among U.S. Adults Aged 55 and Older
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Hypertension (HTN) and arrhythmias are major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in aging populations, yet their long-term combined burden remains underexplored. Tracking these trends is critical for targeted prevention and health system planning. Aim: This study investigates mortality trends associated with HTN and arrhythmia in the U.S., examining demographic disparities and regional variations. Methods: Mortality data from CDC WONDER (1999–2023) were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to assess HTN and arrhythmia-related deaths in U.S. adults aged 55+. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% CIs were calculated. Results: A total of 1,353,676 HTN and arrhythmia-related deaths occurred between 1999 and 2023. The overall AAMR surged from 15.9 to 149.28, with an exponential AAPC of 8.46 (95% CI: 6.01–11.36, p < 0.000001). Gender stratified analysis showed Males had higher mortality rates than females (AAMR: 76.16 vs. 62.62); while also showing a steeper increase in males (AAPC: 9.09, 95% CI: 6.41–12.21) compared to females (AAPC: 8.08, 95% CI: 6.00–10.75), both with p < 0.000001. Non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks exhibited the highest AAMR (72.32) among racial groups, followed by NH Whites (71.13), Hispanic or Latino (49.74) and Asians (44.27). Sharpest rise was seen in NH Whites (AAPC: 8.58, 95% CI: 6.58–11.00), followed by Hispanic or Latino (AAPC: 6.20, 95% CI: 4.74–8.59). The South saw the most pronounced increase (AAPC: 9.04, 95% CI: 6.58–11.39), followed by the Midwest (AAPC: 7.04, 95% CI: 5.71–8.66,). States with the highest AAMRs were Mississippi (212.53), California (160.77), and South Carolina (151.72). Rural areas exhibited slightly higher AAMRs than urban areas (63.06 vs. 55.52), which was also reflected in the AAPC as the mortality trajectory was steeper in rural populations (AAPC: 7.81, 95% CI: 6.33–9.41) compared to urban areas (AAPC: 5.78, 95% CI: 4.12–7.16). Individuals aged ≥75 years bore the highest mortality burden, with an AAPC of 8.33 (95% CI: 6.40–10.72), significantly outpacing the rise observed in those between the ages of 55-74 years (AAPC: 6.41, 95% CI: 5.05–8.34). Conclusion: HTN and arrhythmia-related mortality has increased over time, with the sharpest rises among females, elderly, NH Whites, rural populations, and the Southern U.S., highlighting urgent need for targeted interventions in these high-risk groups.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".