Contrasting early- and late-Holocene vegetation and wildfire regimes in a high-value drinking water supply area, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions of past ecosystems and fire regimes can strengthen interpretations of modelled future fire environments. In this study, sediment cores from four lakes in a high-value water supply area on southern Vancouver Island, Canada, are used to compare climate, vegetation, and fire along a regional east-west precipitation gradient between warm-dry early- and cool-moist late-Holocene intervals. Results indicate that inferred precipitation was lower in the past, with more open-canopy xeric Douglas-fir forests compared to present-day closed-canopy mesic western hemlock and cedar forests. Overall, the wettest and western-most site experienced the greatest change, with more frequent early-Holocene fires yielding to longer fire return intervals in the late-Holocene. This implies that northern coastal temperate rain shadow forests, currently experiencing little fire, may become more vulnerable in the future. It also highlights susceptibility to fire regime shifts consistent with regional observations and models suggesting current and future increases in extreme fire disturbance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".