Social determinants of health and brain connectivity predict physical activity behavior change after new cardiovascular diagnosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Physical activity is essential for preventing cognitive decline, stroke and dementia in older adults. A new cardiovascular diagnosis offers a critical window for positive lifestyle changes. However, sustaining physical activity behavior change remains challenging and the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. To identify the neural, behavioral, and contextual determinants of long-term physical activity change after a new cardiovascular diagnosis, we applied support vector machine learning to predict 4-year trajectories of both self-reported and accelerometer-derived moderate-to-vigorous physical activity in 295 cognitively unimpaired older adults from the UK Biobank, testing three models that incorporated baseline: (i) demographic, cognitive, and contextual factors, (ii) baseline resting-state functional connectivity alone, and (iii) combined multimodal features across all predictors. The combined multimodal model had the highest predictive power (r = 0.28, P = 0.001). Key predictors included greenspace access, social support, executive function and between-network functional connectivity within the default mode, and frontoparietal control networks. These findings underscore the importance of behavioral factors and social determinants of health and uncover neural mechanisms that may support lifestyle modifications. In addition to furthering our understanding of the mechanisms underlying successful physical activity behavior change, these findings help to guide the design of interventions and health policy with the ultimate goal of preventing cardiovascular disease burden and late-life cognitive decline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".