Impacts of tropical cyclones on Northwest Atlantic seabirds: insights from a Category 1 hurricane
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tropical cyclones are annual occurrences in the western North Atlantic Ocean, where many seabird species are vulnerable to the environmental factors associated with extreme weather events. We summarize the history of tropical cyclones in Newfoundland, Canada, which hosts globally significant populations of seabirds. We examine the interactions that historical tropical cyclones have had with breeding seabirds by plotting the temporal association of Category 1 hurricanes with the breeding phenology of colonial seabirds in Newfoundland and identifying which major colonies have fallen within the pathways of these hurricanes. As a case study, we explore how Hurricane Larry (2021) coincided with increased stranding and mortality of Northern Gannets and Leach's Storm-Petrels. The breeding seasons of Northern Gannets and Leach's Storm-Petrels overlapped with all Category 1 hurricanes making landfall in Newfoundland from 1851 to 2024, whereby the central pathways of at least one hurricane passed over the six large Leach's Storm-Petrel colonies and at least one of the Northern Gannet colonies. For Northern Gannets, a notable stranding and mortality event occurred with at least 146 stranded and 130 dead from September 13 to 24, 2021. For Leach's Storm-Petrels, 19 birds were observed stranded and 16 died from September 10 to 14, 2021, which was higher than strandings and deaths reported during this period in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024. As global climate change drives shifts in the timing, frequency, severity, and attributes of tropical cyclones, we raise the concern that the impacts of tropical cyclones on breeding seabirds may worsen and lead to high mortality in some years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedLabeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".