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Record W4415397596 · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0333093

Investigating the evolutionary dynamics and mutational pattern of SARS-CoV-2 spike gene on selected SARS-CoV-2 variants

2025· article· en· W4415397596 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Bachir Balech, Alessandra Lo Presti, Claudia Telegrafo, Lucia Maisto, Emanuela Giombini, Angela Di Martino, Luigina Ambrosio, Apollonia Tullo, Paola Stefanelli

Bibliographic record

VenuePLoS ONE · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersDipartimento di Medicina Sperimentale e Clinica, Università degli Studi di FirenzeUniversità degli Studi di PerugiaUniversità di PisaUniversità degli Studi di VeronaInstitute of GeneticsUniversità degli Studi di FirenzeUniversità degli Studi G. d'Annunzio Chieti - PescaraUniversità degli Studi di PalermoUniversità di CataniaUniversità degli Studi di Siena
KeywordsPhylogenetic treePhylogenetic networkGeneViral evolutionPhylogeneticsEvolutionary dynamicsMutationMolecular evolutionSelection (genetic algorithm)Negative selection

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The continuous evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of several variants representing significant challenges for public health. Many studies highlight the relevance of phylogenetic inference or mutational pattern analysis to understand the evolutionary relatedness of viral variants and to estimate the potential effect of new mutations on viral transmission, virulence and antigenicity. Here we describe an evolutionary investigation approach combined with mutational analyses of SARS-CoV-2 Spike gene to annotate and potentially track important amino acid site variation of specific functional domain relevant for viral survival. This approach was applied on XBB*, EG* and BA* and their sub-lineages (see materials and methods) available from GISAID. In addition, we considered the major variants of concern (Alpha, Delta, Omicron) and Wuhan-Hu-1 strain as references. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree was constructed from the complete dataset while selection pressure and mutational analyses were conducted on single variants separately. The obtained phylogenetic tree of Spike amino acid gene sequence showed a clear separation of viral variants as well as their expected appearance order. This result supported the significance of selection pressure analyses outcomes combined with amino acid mutational frequencies where in many cases they showed a linear and parallel trend. This allowed also to hypothesize the potential importance of low-frequency mutations in new potential virus variants. This study constitutes an asset of important insights to be considered in regular monitoring programs. In addition, the analysis framework described here introduces a starting point for further standardization, optimization and application on different data types and in large-scale studies.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.008

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.071
GPT teacher head0.326
Teacher spread0.255 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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