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Record W4415438818 · doi:10.1302/1358-992x.2025.10.073

PREDICTORS OF RADIOLOGICAL OSTEOARTHRITIS AT FIVE YEARS AFTER ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT RECONSTRUCTION

2025· article· en· W4415438818 on OpenAlexaff
N. G. H. Mohtadi, Daniel K. Chan, Pablo Bertiche, David J. Hunter, Hana Marmura, Dianne Bryant

Bibliographic record

VenueOrthopaedic Proceedings · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicKnee injuries and reconstruction techniques
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRadiographyOsteoarthritisLogistic regressionConfidence intervalAnterior cruciate ligament reconstructionOdds ratioRadiological weaponAnterior cruciate ligament

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

To evaluate the predictive factors of post-traumatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the medial, lateral, and patellofemoral compartments at 5-years post-ACL reconstruction, within a large randomized clinical trial. Three-hundred-and-thirty patients (110 patients/group), ages 14–50 years, were randomized intra-operatively to ACL reconstruction with either a patellar tendon, single-bundle semitendinosus/gracilis tendon, or double-bundle semitendinosus and gracilis tendon autograft. Two- and 5-year clinical and quality-of-life outcomes have been previously published. Standardized radiographs (bilateral P-A weight-bearing, lateral, and bilateral skyline patella views) were performed on all patients at baseline, 2-years and 5-years follow-up. Radiographic OA was graded separately in the medial, lateral, and patellofemoral compartments, using the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) radiographic grading scale. An independent, fellowship-trained orthopaedic surgeon graded the radiographs for absence (A–Normal, B–Nearly Normal) or presence (C–Abnormal, D–Severely Abnormal) of OA. Three separate multi-variable logistic regression analyses were performed with medial, lateral, and patellofemoral radiographic OA as the dependent outcome variable. The independent predictor variables included: demographics (age and sex), knee alignment, stability (Lachman and pivot shift tests), meniscal treatment and chondral condition at index surgery, graft type, graft failure, re-injury, and secondary surgery. A bivariate logistic regression was performed for each individual predictor. For each knee compartment, individual predictor variables with p<0.1 in a bivariate regression analysis were added to a multi-variable logistic regression model if the event rate was adequate. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were reported. IKDC grades for radiographic OA were available for 302 patients (91.5%) at 5-years post-operative. Medial OA was assessed in 35 patients (10.6%). Varus alignment, medial meniscectomy, medial compartment chondral damage, age > 35 years and male sex were identified as individual predictors of radiographic OA. However, only medial meniscectomy (OR 5.8 (95%CI 2.7–12.6, p<0.01)) and varus knee alignment (OR 2.4 (95%CI 1.1–5.1; p=0.03)) significantly predicted medial OA. Lateral OA was assessed in 67 patients (20.3%). Graft type, pivot shift, valgus alignment, lateral meniscectomy, lateral meniscal repair, and lateral compartment chondral damage were identified as individual predictors of radiographic OA. However, only patellar tendon graft (OR 2.4 (95%CI 1.2–4.8 p=0.02)), lateral meniscectomy (OR 2.6 (95%CI 1.3–5.2, p≤0.01)), lateral meniscal repair (OR 3.3 (95%CI 1.5–7.4, p≤0.01)) and lateral compartment chondral damage (OR 2.0 (95%CI 1.0 – 3.9, p=0.04)) significantly predicted lateral OA. Based on a bivariate analysis with 9 patients (2.7%) with patellofemoral OA, only patellofemoral chondral damage (OR 5.7 (95%CI 1.5–21.8, p=0.01)) was a significant predictor of OA. Graft failure, traumatic re-injury, and secondary surgery did not predict presence of radiographic OA at 5-years post-operative in any compartment. Graft failure, traumatic re-injury, and secondary surgery did not predict presence of radiographic OA at 5-years post-operative in any compartment. At 5-years post-ACL reconstruction, varus alignment and medial meniscectomy significantly increase the risk of developing medial OA. Use of a patellar tendon graft, lateral meniscectomy, lateral meniscal repair, and chondral damage significantly increase the risk of developing lateral OA. Graft failure, traumatic re-injury, or secondary surgery were not predictive of radiographic OA in any compartment. Higher proportions of patients with OA are required to increase confidence in these associations.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.439
Threshold uncertainty score0.598

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.004
GPT teacher head0.229
Teacher spread0.225 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
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