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Record W4415453249 · doi:10.1210/jendso/bvaf149.1099

SAT-568 National Trends in the Incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease Due to Type 1 Diabetes Among Adults Aged 55 and Older Across 204 Countries (1990-2021): A Global Burden Of Disease Study

2025· article· en· W4415453249 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Mishaal Munir, Gianina Flocco, Husnain Ahmad, Mian Zahid Jan Kakakhel, Faizan Ahmed, Muhammad Irvan Ali, Ayesha Zahid, Jibran Ikram, Asfand Yar Cheema

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of the Endocrine Society · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicDiabetes Management and Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsIncidence (geometry)Kidney diseaseDisease burdenConfidence intervalBurden of diseasePopulationDiabetes mellitusType 1 diabetesEpidemiology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Disclosure: M. Munir: None. G. Flocco: None. H. Ahmad: None. M. Kakakhel: None. F. Ahmed: None. M. Ali: None. A. Zahid: None. J. Ikram: None. A. Cheema: None. Over the last 30 years, significant population growth, aging, and shifts in epidemiologic trends have likely influenced the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). In this study, we utilized data and methodologies from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to examine changes in the burden of CKD due to T1DM from 1990 to 2021, focusing on incidence rates in adults aged 55 and older across 204 nations. GBD study data were analyzed to assess changes in the incidence rates of CKD due to T1DM. Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPCs) were calculated to capture national trends in adults aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The incidence of CKD due to T1DM has increased dramatically from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, the United States of America (USA) reported the highest number of new cases, followed by India and China. Notably, China surpassed Germany, which ranked fourth in 2021, marking a shift from the 1990 distribution of cases. The analysis revealed significant shifts in the incidence of CKD attributable to T1DM across nations over the past three decades. In 1990, Canada reported the highest incidence rate (3.92 per 100,000), but by 2021, Ireland emerged at the forefront with an incidence of 5.09 per 100,000, while Canada dropped to 4th place (3.90 per 100,000). Finland (4.41 per 100,000) and Austria (4.29 per 100,000) followed closely. In contrast, the lowest incidence rates in 2021 were observed in Papua New Guinea (0.19 per 100,000), followed by Tokelau (0.19 per 100,000) and Nauru (0.21 per 100,000), highlighting the marked global disparities in the burden of CKD due to T1DM. Despite the observed incidence rates from 1990 to 2021, Cyprus exhibited the most significant increase in incidence of CKD due to T1DM (EAPC: 3.32, 95% CI: 4.31, 2.47), followed by Hungary (EAPC: 3.01, 95% CI: 4.04, 2.20) and Slovakia (EAPC: 2.72, 95% CI: 3.98, 1.94). In contrast, 14 nations experienced declining incidence rates, with the most notable reductions occurring in Greenland (EAPC: -0.31, 95% CI: -0.16, -0.44), followed by Timor-Leste (EAPC: -0.31, 95% CI: -0.13, -0.44) and Egypt (EAPC: -0.19, 95% CI: -0.005, -0.32). The incidence of CKD due to T1DM has risen sharply in countries like Cyprus, Hungary, and Slovakia, while regions such as Greenland, Timor-Leste, and Egypt have experienced significant decreases. These changes point to varying trends in disease burden worldwide, emphasizing the importance of region-specific healthcare approaches to address this growing challenge. Presentation: Saturday, July 12, 2025

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.040
Threshold uncertainty score0.304

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.327
Teacher spread0.319 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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