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Record W4415596281 · doi:10.1101/2025.10.26.684656

Transient dynamics and counterintuitive competitive performance in periodic environments

2025· preprint· W4415596281 on OpenAlexaff
Carling Bieg, Bailey C. McMeans, Alexa M Scott, Kevin S. McCann

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025
Typepreprint
Language
FieldComputer Science
TopicDistributed Control Multi-Agent Systems
Canadian institutionsUniversity of TorontoUniversity of Guelph
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCounterintuitiveCompetition (biology)NicheClimate changeTransient (computer programming)Nonlinear systemPaceBiodiversity

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Despite the rapid pace of global change altering temporal environmental patterning, we lack a general understanding of how periodic environments structure ecological communities. In fluctuating environments, nonlinear dynamics associated with temporal trade-offs between competing species can create the potential for both niche differentiation (coexistence) and seemingly unexpected outcomes (exclusion) that deviate from deterministic coexistence theory. Yet, the mechanisms behind these outcomes are not fully understood. Here, we show that periodic fluctuations between times of high and low growth (e.g., seasons), and adaptive temporal trade-offs within and between species, can drive counterintuitive over- and under-performance of competing species. Most notable is the counterintuitive outcome of seasonally-mediated competitive exclusion that would not occur in either season alone, but is rather the direct result of environmental variability itself. We find that seasonal trade-offs in species’ growth rates, seasonal differences in competition strength, and functional similarity between competing species have the potential to drive nonlinear responses in coexistence to changing seasonality under global change. These biological conditions collectively influence our model’s transient dynamics, further explaining the mechanisms behind counterintuitive outcomes and highlighting the importance of non-equilibrium theory for global change ecology. Importantly, the seasonal patterns and species’ trade-offs that magnify these results are biologically realistic, therefore providing important insight into the implications for the maintenance of biodiversity under global change.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.003
Threshold uncertainty score0.007

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.008
GPT teacher head0.197
Teacher spread0.189 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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