Apparent annual survival of adult <i>Vermivora chrysoptera</i> (Golden-winged Warbler) does not differ by sex or region
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Understanding range-wide demographic, spatial, and temporal variation in annual survival is essential for managing species of conservation concern. Multi-population models are useful tools for integrating diverse datasets, reducing biases, and deriving survival estimates across differing spatial scales. We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), using data from 18 sites across its breeding and nonbreeding grounds. This Nearctic-Neotropical migrant breeds in 2 disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. We used simulations to assess the precision of our estimates. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.41, 95% credible interval (CrI):0.31–0.50) and the Appalachian regions (0.49, 95% CrI: 0.36–0.60), as CrIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CrI’s overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CrI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".