Mass balance modeling highlights the role of the littoral zone in modulating the cycling of phosphorus in a large, multi-basin lake (Lake Erie)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Excess land-derived input of phosphorus (P) is generally considered the primary driver of eutrophication symptoms in large lakes, including Lake Erie, one of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we present a regionalized P mass balance model for Lake Erie’s three basins (western, central, and eastern) that explicitly accounts for the decadal circulation of the lake and P fluxes into and out of the lake’s nearshore (littoral) zones. The model comprises 11 water column compartments, including both nearshore and offshore compartments, as well as a further partitioning of the offshore waters between surface and deep-water compartments. External P loads to the lake, plus water fluxes into and out of the different lake compartments were averaged over the 2003–2016 period and imposed to the model. According to the steady state baseline simulations, 85% of total P (TP) flowing out of the western basin of Lake Erie enters the lake’s central basin along the nearshore zone. Moreover, transport parallel to the coastline, both on the northern (Canada) and southern (USA) sides of the central basin, represents the major pathway for the continued eastward movement of P to the eastern basin and, ultimately, to the outflow discharging in downstream Lake Ontario. The results further underscore (1) the importance of shoreline erosion as a TP input to the littoral zone, especially along the Canadian side of Lake Erie’s central basin, (2) the complex, bi-directional P exchanges between nearshore and offshore waters in the central and eastern basins, and (3) the sensitivity of these exchanges to the lake’s general circulation regime.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".