Real-Time Traffic Arrival Prediction for Intelligent Signal Control Using a Hidden Markov Model-Filtered Dynamic Platoon Dispersion Model and Automatic License Plate Recognition Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate prediction of downstream vehicle arrivals is pivotal for intelligent signal control, yet many advanced controllers depend on high-resolution trajectories that are rarely available outside connected-vehicle settings. We present a deployable alternative that converts ubiquitous Automatic License Plate Recognition (ALPR) timestamps into the predictive inputs required by modern controllers. The method couples a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for separating free-flow samples from signal-induced delays with a dynamic platoon-dispersion model that is re-estimated online in a rolling window to forecast downstream arrival profiles in real time. In a Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO) corridor testbed, the proposed framework consistently outperforms fixed-kernel dispersion and fixed-travel-time baselines, reducing RMSE by 57–75% and MAE by 53–73% across demand levels; ablation results confirm that HMM-based filtering is the dominant contributor to the gains. Robustness experiments further show stable parameter estimation under low ALPR matching rates, indicating suitability for real-world conditions where data quality fluctuates. Because it operates with existing roadside cameras and lightweight inference, the framework is readily integrable into adaptive signal strategies and broader smart-city traffic management. By turning discrete ALPR events into reliable arrival predictions, it bridges the gap between advanced signal control and today’s sensing infrastructure, enabling cost-effective real-time signal optimization in data-constrained urban networks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".