Antarctic meltwater alters future projections of climate and sea level
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Imperfect understanding of ice sheet-climate interactions poses challenges for projecting the impacts of ice sheet mass loss on future climate and sea level. Here we couple a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet model and global climate model to simulate ice sheet-climate interactions. In our single-model, single-member modeling framework, we find sea level and climate projections are significantly modified from uncoupled simulations neglecting Antarctic meltwater under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Antarctic meltwater yields surface air temperatures up to 1.5 °C higher in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, while broadly dampening temperature rise in the Southern Hemisphere. Due to radiative feedback changes, both emissions scenarios have global mean surface temperature warming ~0.3 °C lower in the coupled scenario than the control by 2100, with a maximum anomaly of ~1 °C at 2200 under RCP8.5. This slows Antarctica's contribution to global mean sea level rise. Total Antarctic sea level contributions under RCP8.5 (2100: ~0.3 m, 2200: >3 m) include substantial contributions from East Antarctica, though not under RCP4.5 (2100: ~0.1 m, 2200: >1 m). Regionally, projected sea level is up to 0.9 m higher in the Pacific than the global mean Antarctic contribution under RCP8.5 at 2200.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".