Fourier methods for efficient sufficient dimension reduction in time series
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Dimension reduction has always been one of the most significant and challenging problems in the analysis of high‐dimensional data. In the context of time series analysis, our focus is on the estimation and inference of conditional mean and variance functions. By using central mean and variance dimension reduction subspaces that preserve sufficient information about the response, one can estimate the unknown mean and variance functions. While several approaches exist to estimate the time series central mean and variance subspaces (TS‐CMS and TS‐CVS), they are often computationally intensive and impractical. By employing the Fourier transform, we derive explicit estimators for TS‐CMS and TS‐CVS. These estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and efficient. Simulation studies evaluate the method's performance, showing it is significantly more accurate and computationally efficient than existing ones. Furthermore, the method is applied to the Canadian lynx dataset.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it